Partnerships between scientists, engineers, legislators, and local communities can substantially enhance earthquake resilience ("'Epicenters' of resilience," M. L. Zoback, Editorial, 17 October, p. 283<http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1261788>). Such resilience must not be compromised by energy development.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by developing low-carbon and renewable energy including hydropower, geothermal power, and natural gas is now a global priority. These options are not without risks. Changing reservoir water levels can induce shallow earthquakes, and water injection, common in the geothermal and gas industries, increases pore pressures, potentially inducing seismic events (1<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-1>). There is a clear association between seismicity and active injection at the Geysers geothermal plant north of San Francisco (1<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-1>). Injection of wastewater from unconventional gas fracking has been reported as the reason for the sharp increase in seismicity in Oklahoma (2<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-2>).
Such enhanced seismicity is of particular concern in regions with poorly developed infrastructure and limited community resilience to earthquakes. China has the world's largest shale-gas reserves (about 36 trillion m3), with many located near earthquake fault zones (3<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-3>). The 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) includes proposals to exploit these reserves, especially in Sichuan and Chongqing (4<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-4>). The population of these areas exceeds 110 million, and water injection has already induced 14 earthquakes of at least magnitude 4.0 in Chongqing's Rongchang conventional gas field (5<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-5>, 6<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-6>). Furthermore, management actions for major hydropower dams, such as Three Gorges, need to be better informed so that seismic events can be better managed and risks minimized (7<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#ref-7>).
Earthquakes induced by the energy sectors are generally low in magnitude. However, effects could be deadly if they trigger release of accumulated tectonic strain in a large fault. Building partnerships based on the San Francisco model is necessary for all populous regions, and resilience enhancement is especially important where ground-source energy development is expanding rapidly.
1. Hong Yang<http://www.sciencemag.org/search?author1=Hong+Yang&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>,
2. Julian R. Thompson<http://www.sciencemag.org/search?author1=Julian+R.+Thompson&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>2<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#aff-2>,
3. Roger J. Flower<http://www.sciencemag.org/search?author1=Roger+J.+Flower&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>2<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.short#aff-2>
Feed: Science: Current Issue
Posted on: Friday, 7 November 2014 11:00 AM
Author: Hong Yang
Subject: [Letter] Earthshaking energy development plans
Authors: Hong Yang, Julian R. Thompson, Roger J. Flower
View article...<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6210/710.2.summary?rss=1>
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